Every day I get annoyed at some misinformation about the coronavirus. Whether it is a misleading graph, misinformation about a statistic or the press criticizing leaders over what should or should not be done everyone needs to calm down a bit.
The bottom line is everyone is doing their best. It may not seem like it to you, but even the world leaders will believe they are trying their hardest for their nations needs. Whether or not they are an idiot is a separate debate in which I am sure we all have very educated opinions 🙂
So this is what we know:
- a number for the total covid 19 cases worldwide/by region/by country/…
- a number for the total covid 19 deaths …
- some numbers for PPE, doctors, nurses, hospitals and other data around covid 19
Of these, only the third item will be anywhere factual. The first 2 will be a best estimate and will be reported with a variety of methods and diagnoses. They are likely to be lower estimates.
This is a list of other factors we know:
- country populations, death rates, covid 19 death rates
- population densities (46 people per square mile in New Zealand, 623 pp sq mi Germany, 4542 pp sq mi LONDON)
- country infrastructure (underground systems, ferry ports, number of cars, ….)
Some of these factors are VERY IMPORTANT if you give them some thought. Of course a virus will spread more in London in the week that we brought all of our nationals home by airplane. Of course the virus will not spread quickly in the middle of a desert where the mode of transport is camel.
I tried to explain to my daughter why we in the UK may have a high death rate. Here are my first thoughts:
- Our NHS is amazing – they look after people (including elderly) very well. We therefore have an aging population who are most susceptible to death from covid 19.
- When we were asked to stay at home before lockdown, a lot of people did not. Take a look at yourselves for exacerbating this.
- If, a couple of weeks before this happened, we shut our borders completely (easy for an island to do) we would not have had this problem. A lot of people would have whinged and complained though as it seems some people are like that in the UK.
So we (me, you, the press, governments, …) can try to look at the data and make comparisons and suggest best models to combat the spread of covid 19, but, and this I feel is the most important factor, you cannot compare country by country. Full stop!
It would be like me saying Alice in year 10 maths is better than Ruby in year 10 maths because she scored 9/10 on her homework and Ruby got 8/10. What?! There are SO MANY FACTORS in this. Students are individuals. Countries are all different.
Yes, share all the positive good ideas and science. No, do not criticise and blame leaders. Unless they are an official idiot.
And next time, just shut up shop to the world for a month – apparently 52% of the country voted for that anyway.